Scenario Modelling

The work package will undertake a review of energy scenarios and models developed by different stakeholders (at national and international level) in order to critically evaluate their relevance and utility in the context of the Welsh energy system. Based on the findings of the review and taking into account the ongoing developments in the field, the aim is to specify an integrated modelling framework to appraise the long-term carbon-reduction, economic and market potentials of the innovative technologies and solutions being developed by the LCRI.

The modelling framework will be used to assess the interaction between different policy measures and the deployment of new technologies within each sector as well as the impact of such changes across other sectors of the energy system, and identify links and effects in terms of the drivers and impacts of policy options. A disaggregated regional approach will be taken where possible and appropriate, while keeping in mind the sensitivity of different technology options and policy decisions to external fuel and carbon constraints.

We aim to provide baseline for the Welsh energy system in terms of energy demand, energy supply and impacts, snapshots at distinct milestones of how it may evolve under different scenario assumptions and the implications in terms regional technology deployment, energy flows and emissions.

Part of the review process which will set the scene for the research is to produce a Welsh Energy Atlas, through a mapping exercise to compile a GIS database comprising Welsh energy resources, infrastructure and demand, projects under construction or consideration, the potential for renewable energy or other key aspects for emerging technologies. The goal is to provide both stakeholders and researchers with an overview of the information already available and encourage an integrated approach to planning and analysis of future energy questions.

Research Areas

• Critically review current scenarios and energy models to examine their utility in a Welsh context
• Compile a GIS database of Welsh energy resources, infrastructure and demand
• Specify an integrated ’Welsh Energy Transitions’ modelling framework capable of appraising the long-term carbon-reduction, economic and market potentials of the novel technologies and solutions being developed by the LCRI main themes of Low carbon energy generation, storage and distribution (photovoltaics, hydrogen energy systems, marine energy, bioenergy) and Carbon reduction and energy efficiency (low/zero carbon built environment, large scale power generation)
• Explore plausible pathways for a transition to a low carbon economy in Wales